Major forecast changes to your Memorial Day Holiday

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Satellite and Radar (WPEC)

Your Memorial Day weekend has arrived and new this morning big changes to the forecast - models are now indicating a wet end to the holiday weekend.

For the first half of the weekend, an east wind will primarily pin the rain chances to the west coast of Florida. Only about a 20% chance of a shower or storm for the Treasure Coast and Palm Beach county on your Saturday. Expect highs today in the mid 80s with feels like temperatures into the low to mid 90s. A mix of sun and clouds throughout the day area-wide. For Palm Beach County, periods of clouds may be more likely than sunshine, especially after 2 p.m.

By Sunday, our winds begin to shift out of the east southeast. That southeast component is critical, because it will allow for showers and storms to begin development in Broward and Miami-Dade counties. The question is how far north or south in each of the counties will the showers/storms form. There's a possibility that some showers/storms may track into southern and southwestern Palm Beach County, so rain chances are raised to 40% for Palm Beach on Sunday. Still capped to 20 percent on Sunday for the Treasure Coast. Daytime highs once again in the mid 80s.

By Monday, major chances are expected. What was expected to be a rather dry day, may now be exceptionally wet. New overnight, computer models are starting to hint at a very wet and unsettled weather pattern in the Gulf of Mexico tracking across the Florida peninsula. While each model has subtle differences, the general pattern is for a wave of one or several areas of low pressure to move overhead Monday through Wednesday bringing rounds of storms, some producing very heavy rain. While the exact timing and location of the heaviest of the rain remains in question, the general pattern is indicating that areas across Palm Beach County may be most likely. This part of the forecast has moderate confidence, but the exact specifics remain low confidence. Keep checking back for updates. The main concern for Monday will be localized flooding in urban areas - very similar to the localized flooding in Boca Raton and Delray Beach last week.

As we move towards late next week, the area of unsettled weather should push off into the Atlantic and a return to typical sea-breeze summer activity should return.